“Not even thinking about thinking about raising rates.”
Jerome Powell · Former Chair (2018 to 2026) · U.S. Federal ReserveSee track record
“We're not thinking about raising rates. We're not even thinking about thinking about raising rates.”
- Confidence
- 86/100
Confirmed
- For vs against
- 2to0
Nothing contradicts it yet
- Days tracked
- 2205days
Since first seen on the record
- Saved
- 1,340
Readers tracking this signal
Will this come true?
64% say true, 16% too early, to 447 votes
A claim about the future
The Fed had no intention of raising rates for the foreseeable future.
Rates stayed near zero through 2020 to 2021; the Fed did not begin hiking until March 2022. Roughly 21 months later, then moved at the fastest pace in decades.
See what happenedIt shows how a call can be literally accurate and still set up the next problem.
How the claim has aged.
- Where it beganJun 10, 2020
Statement made
FOMC post-meeting press conference
- VerdictJun 20, 2026
Played out
Rates stayed near zero through 2020 to 2021; the Fed did not begin hiking until March 2022. Roughly 21 months later, then moved at the fastest pace in decades.
- Supports
- Contradicts
- Neutral
Show the receipts.
- QuotedSupportsJun 10, 2020
Jerome Powell · Federal Reserve · Conference
We're not thinking about raising rates. We're not even thinking about thinking about raising rates.
- PatternSupports3d ago
What happened since · Filing
Rates stayed near zero through 2020 to 2021; the Fed did not begin hiking until March 2022. Roughly 21 months later, then moved at the fastest pace in decades.
Read narrowly, the guidance held: rates stayed at zero for nearly two years. Read against the inflation it helped enable, it aged into the harder “too loose, too long” critique.
It shows how a call can be literally accurate and still set up the next problem.
The next proof point.
On the record
Graded against sourced outcomes. Watch for reversals.
Next CPI print
Whether inflation cools from ~4% toward target.
Next FOMC decision
Whether the new chair hikes to defend the target.
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Keep the receipts on this one. Save it, track the topic, and follow the arcs it belongs to. Then come back when the next proof point lands.
- The Fed’s Long War on InflationContested
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