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Jerome Powell
On the record

Jerome Powell

Former Chair (2018 to 2026) · U.S. Federal Reserve

Wikipedia

67%

Hit rate

4

Tracked calls

2

Played out

1

Didn't hold up

2 Played out1 Partly1 Didn't hold

What Jerome said, and whether it held.

Open signal: Powell called inflation “transitory.” It wasn’t.
Jerome Powell
Didn’t hold up

Jerome Powell

Former Chair (2018 to 2026) · U.S. Federal Reserve

40% true to 827 calls
Monetary PolicyDovish

Powell called inflation “transitory.” It wasn’t.

We tend to use the word transitory to mean that it won't leave a permanent mark in the form of higher inflation. I think it's probably a good time to retire that word.
Nov 30, 2021·2 receipts
Open signal: “Not even thinking about thinking about raising rates.”
Jerome Powell
Played out

Jerome Powell

Former Chair (2018 to 2026) · U.S. Federal Reserve

64% true to 447 calls
Monetary PolicyDovish

“Not even thinking about thinking about raising rates.”

We're not thinking about raising rates. We're not even thinking about thinking about raising rates.
Jun 10, 2020·2 receipts
Open signal: Powell warned of “some pain.” He meant it.
Jerome Powell
Played out

Jerome Powell

Former Chair (2018 to 2026) · U.S. Federal Reserve

64% true to 373 calls
Monetary PolicyHawkish

Powell warned of “some pain.” He meant it.

While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation.
Aug 26, 2022·2 receipts
Open signal: Starting to cut, Powell saw no downturn coming.
Jerome Powell
Partly right

Jerome Powell

Former Chair (2018 to 2026) · U.S. Federal Reserve

48% true to 327 calls
Monetary PolicyNeutral

Starting to cut, Powell saw no downturn coming.

I don't see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood of a downturn is elevated.
Sep 18, 2024·1 receipts